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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement wins the prize. However, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking upset.

Yet this year's race is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers improving collectively. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still